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- DS-170002 type PositionPaper assertion.
- author-list _1 0000-0002-8456-8124 assertion.
- DS-170002 isPartOf 2451-8492 assertion.
- DS-170002 title "Conflict forecasting and its limits" assertion.
- 2451-8492 title "Data Science" assertion.
- 0000-0002-8456-8124 name "Thomas Chadefaux" assertion.
- 02tyrky19 name "Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin, 2–3 College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland" assertion.
- DS-170002 abstract "Research on international conflict has mostly focused on explaining events such as the onset or termination of wars, rather than on trying to predict them. Recently, however, forecasts of political phenomena have received growing attention. Predictions of violent events, in particular, have been increasingly accurate using various methods ranging from expert knowledge to quantitative methods and formal modeling. Yet, we know little about the limits of these approaches, even though information about these limits has critical implications for both future research and policy-making. In particular, are our predictive inaccuracies due to limitations of our models, data, or assumptions, in which case improvements should occur incrementally. Or are there aspects of conflicts that will always remain fundamentally unpredictable? After reviewing some of the current approaches to forecasting conflict, I suggest avenues of research that could disentangle the causes of our current predictive failures." assertion.
- DS-170002 date "2017-10-17" assertion.
- 0000-0002-8456-8124 email "thomas.chadefaux@tcd.ie" assertion.
- DS-170002 volume "1" assertion.
- 0000-0002-8456-8124 affiliation 02tyrky19 assertion.
- DS-170002 issue "1-2" assertion.